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The Zika virus epidemic of 2015–16, which caused over 1 million confirmed or suspected human cases in the Caribbean and Latin America, was driven by a combination of movement of infected humans and availability of suitable habitat for mosquito species that are key disease vectors. Both human mobility and mosquito vector abundances vary seasonally, and the goal of our research was to analyze the interacting effects of disease vector densities and human movement across metapopulations on disease transmission intensity and the probability of super-spreader events. Our research uses the novel approach of combining geographical modeling of mosquito presence with network modeling of human mobility to offer a comprehensive simulation environment for Zika virus epidemics that considers a substantial number of spatial and temporal factors compared to the literature. Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that 1) regions with the highest probability of mosquito presence will have more super-spreader events during dry months, when mosquitoes are predicted to be more abundant, 2) regions reliant on tourism industries will have more super-spreader events during wet months, when they are more likely to contribute to network-level pathogen spread due to increased travel. We used the case study of Colombia, a country with a population of about 50 million people, with an annual calendar that can be partitioned into overlapping cycles of wet and dry seasons and peak tourism and off tourism seasons that drive distinct cyclical patterns of mosquito abundance and human movement. Our results show that whether the first infected human was introduced to the network during the wet versus dry season and during the tourism versus off tourism season profoundly affects the severity and trajectory of the epidemic. For example, Zika virus was first detected in Colombia in October of 2015. Had it originated in January, a dry season month with high rates of tourism, it likely could have infected up to 60% more individuals and up to 40% more super-spreader events may have occurred. In addition, popular tourism destinations such as Barranquilla and Cartagena have the highest risk of super-spreader events during the winter, whereas densely populated areas such as Medellín and Bogotá are at higher risk of sustained transmission during dry months in the summer. Our research demonstrates that public health planning and response to vector-borne disease outbreaks requires a thorough understanding of how vector and host patterns vary due to seasonality in environmental conditions and human mobility dynamics. This research also has strong implications for tourism policy and the potential response strategies in case of an emergent epidemic. 

When COVID-19 was first introduced to the United States, state and local governments enacted a variety of policies intended to mitigate the virulence of the epidemic. At the time, the most effective measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 included stay-at-home orders, closing of nonessential businesses, and mask mandates. Although it was well known that regions with high population density and cold climates were at the highest risk for disease spread, rural counties that are economically reliant on tourism were incentivized to enact fewer precautions against COVID-19. The uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic, the multiple policies to reduce transmission, and the changes in outdoor recreation behavior had a significant impact on rural tourism destinations and management of protected spaces. We utilize fine-scale incidence and demographic data to study the relationship between local economic and political concerns, COVID-19 mitigation measures, and the subsequent severity of outbreaks throughout the continental United States. We also present results from an online survey that measured travel behavior, health risk perceptions, knowledge and experience with COVID-19, and evaluation of destination attributes by 407 out-of-state visitors who traveled to Maine from 2020 to 2021. We synthesize this research to present a narrative on how perceptions of COVID-19 risk and public perceptions of rural tourism put certain communities at greater risk of illness throughout 2020. This research could inform future rural destination management and public health policies to help reduce negative socioeconomic, health and environmental impacts of pandemic-derived changes in travel and outdoor recreation behavior. 

Values and motivations can shape natural resource management decision-making as individuals set conservation goals based on diverse, unique backgrounds, histories, and experiences. Recent literature points to the need to understand, evaluate, and articulate practitioner values to make explicit how experiences shape their work. Our research responds to calls to explore a diverse range of values and motivations among conservation practitioners. We used a qualitative approach grounded in phenomenology to advance an in-depth understanding of how conservation and stewardship practitioners experience, acknowledge, and make sense of conservation decision-making in Maine, USA. We interviewed 21 conservation and stewardship practitioners. Our results indicate the presence of complex value systems, including strong biospheric, altruistic, eudaimonic, as well as egoistic values. These values interact and intersect with motivations for participants’ careers in conservation in unique ways, driving participant actions and decision-making. Within Maine specifically, our results highlight the many areas for convergence of broad values among seemingly diverse groups that can inform opportunities for collaboration. Participants expressed various pathways to careers in conservation, where their work enables them to make a meaningful contribution to the environment and society. However in situations where personal and organizational values are misaligned, the role of organizational transparency, employee empowerment, and agency are key. Our results have implications for conservation groups seeking to achieve high employee satisfaction, as well as researchers, policymakers, and practitioners who hope to inspire individuals to take on conservation careers to create sustainable and transformative action for the future. Fostering early experiences in place, including interactions with the non-human world and local community, are important for influencing and reinforcing values and motivations for conservation action. 

Abstract We conducted a spatially explicit vulnerability assessment of the forest industry in Maine, USA, to climate change in an effort to (1) advance a spatial framework for assessing forest industry vulnerability and (2) increase our understanding of Maine’s specific vulnerabilities to climate change in order to guide decision-making. We applied a bottom-up indicator approach to evaluate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change using both biophysical and social indicators, largely driven by participatory processes. Our approach enabled us to synthesize and aggregate indicators of regional importance to evaluate vulnerability, allowing us to simultaneously examine combinations of potential changes. We found that each Maine county had its own unique combination of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators, with overall vulnerability highest in the rural northern and western parts of the state, where forest industry activities are most prevalent. However, results also indicate that although increased stress from climate-related changes can negatively affect Maine’s forest via high exposure, reduced sensitivities and increased adaptive capacity have the potential to largely decrease overall vulnerability in many parts of the state.